Analysis on the operation of the first three ...

2018-07-11

First, the output of raw coal has maintained overall growth momentum, which has dropped significantly in the three quarter.

As the coal market continued to flourish in the past few years, the investment in fixed assets in the coal industry continued to increase rapidly. After the integration of coal resources in recent years, the production capacity of resource integration mine has been released gradually. In the first three quarters of this year, the output of raw coal in main coal producing areas such as Inner Mongolia, Shanxi and Shaanxi continued to grow. However, because of the sharp fall in coal prices and weak market demand after June, some coal mines, especially local coal mines, have to cut production and reduce production, the output of raw coal has been greatly affected, the output of raw coal in the main production area is also rapidly reduced, and the cumulative growth rate has fallen rapidly.

Data from various local coal supervision departments showed that in 1-9 months, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi and Shaanxi completed 742 million tons of raw coal, 672 million tons (estimates) and 329 million 700 thousand tons, respectively 3.1%, 6.1% and 10.4% compared to the same period last year. Compared with the 1-6 month growth, the output was 6.5 percentage points, 10 percentage points, and 2.2 respectively. Percentage points.

Due to the increasing proportion of Inner Mongolia, Shanxi and Shaanxi provinces, the growth of raw coal in the above three provinces will also lead to the decline in the growth of raw coal. Data from the China Coal Industry Association showed that the annual growth rate of raw coal production in the whole country had fallen from 7.1% in 1-6 months to 6.2% in the month of 1-7. In the 1-8 month, it was further reduced to 4.9%., considering that the output of raw coal in the three provinces above September had all been reduced from the same year to year, and the growth rate of raw coal production in the 1-9 month will be further reduced to less than 4%.

Two, the overall growth of coal imports has dropped sharply in the three quarter.

Since this year, the supply and demand situation of the international coal market is loose, and the fluctuation of coal prices continues to be low after the downward movement. From the two aspects of resources and prices, China's coal imports have laid a foundation for high operation, and China's coal imports have increased substantially. Customs data show that in 1-8 months, China achieved 184 million 520 thousand tons of coal imports, an increase of 46.3% over the same period last year.

Since this year, China's coal import volume has increased substantially, but it can not ignore the fact that the coal import volume has fallen significantly since July, the rapid decline in growth rate and even the rise and fall of the same year. Because of the sharp decline in coal prices since June, some traders have been losing huge losses and some import contracts have been terminated. In 7 and August, the volume of coal imports fell continuously. The data show that China's coal imports fell from 27 million 190 thousand tons in June to 24 million 270 thousand tons in July, and further dropped to 20 million 440 thousand tons in August, and the increase in imports fell from 58.5% in June to 14.2% in July, and to a year-on-year decline of 0.7% in August. Considering that the volume of coal imports in September is still difficult to achieve significant growth, the total increase in coal imports in the third quarter will be less than 5%, compared with the year on year increase in 1-6 month 65.9%, the tone of the back tone is not so severe.

The sharp fall in the three quarter coal imports, to a certain extent, improved the imbalance in the supply and demand of the coastal coal market to a certain extent, and then helped the domestic coal price to stop steadily and slightly recover.

Three, coal demand continued weak trend

Since the slowdown in economic growth and the slow growth in demand for major energy intensive products, coal demand has been weakening throughout the year.

First, the demand for coal for power generation is weak. On the one hand, as the economic growth slowed down and the demand for electricity in the whole society grew sluggish, the total electricity generation growth rate dropped significantly. In 1-9 months, the cumulative generating capacity reached 35834 billion kilowatt hours, an increase of 3.6% over the same period, of which 7, 8 and September increased by 2.1%, 2.7% and 1.5% respectively. On the other hand, due to the relatively good water supply situation in recent years, the hydropower generating capacity has increased rapidly. In the 1-8 months, the total hydropower generation increased by 20.6% year-on-year, with 7 and August increasing by 33.9% and 47.9% respectively. The increase in September is expected to be over 40%. Influenced by the above two factors, the thermal power generation capacity of the whole country increased only by 0.65% in the last year of 1-8. From April, the single month thermal power generation was reduced for 5 months in a continuous period, and the decline was gradually expanding. As the thermal power generation in September will still decrease year by year, the cumulative thermal power generation capacity in 1-9 may even rise or fall. Taking into account the improvement of coal-fired power efficiency, the consumption of coal for power generation will decrease in the 1-9 months of this year.

Secondly, the demand for metallurgical coal is also weak. As the growth rate of investment in fixed assets is slowing down, the growth rate of industrial production has declined obviously. The growth of steel demand has been sluggish since this year, and the growth rate of raw iron and coarse steel has fallen significantly. In the month of 1-9, the total production of raw iron and coarse steel was 502 million 780 thousand tons and 542 million 340 thousand tons in the whole country. It increased by 2.7% and 1.7% respectively, respectively, 7.7 percentage points and 9 percentage points respectively compared with the same period last year. Compared with the growth rate of 1-6 months of this year, it fell by 0.2 percentage points and 0.1 100 points respectively. This shows that the growth rate of pig iron and crude steel output has slowed down in the three quarter. If the level of coal consumption is taken into account, the demand for metallurgical coal will increase very low in the 1-9 month of this year, and the demand for metallurgical coal demand in the three quarter is very likely.

Once again, the demand for coal for building materials has also slowed considerably. Affected by slow investment in fixed assets, especially the slowdown in real estate investment, the growth rate of cement and flat glass output has also dropped significantly this year. In 1-9 months, the total volume of cement production was 1 billion 591 million 240 thousand tons in the whole country, up 6.7% from the same period last year, 11.4 percentage points down from the same period last year, and the output of flat glass was even reduced by nearly 18% from the same period last year to nearly 4%. As building materials output growth slowed down sharply, or even from the up to down, building materials industry demand for coal has also slowed sharply.

Finally,